California Governor’s Race: Latest Polling Insights

A recent Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey reveals an intriguing landscape in the race for California’s Governor’s office. The poll indicates that Republican candidate Steve Hilton is currently leading with 17% of the vote. Close on his heels are Rep. Eric Swalwell and Sheriff Chad Bianco, both garnering 14% support. Former Rep. Katie Porter trails at 10%, while Tom Steyer has captured 9%. Notably, 21% of voters remain undecided about their choice.

Poll Trends Since December

Since the last survey conducted in December, support for Hilton and Steyer has increased by five percentage points, Swalwell’s support has risen by two points, while Porter’s backing has decreased by one point. This shift indicates evolving dynamics within the electorate and suggests potential volatility as the election approaches.

Party Dynamics

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, highlighted that the Republican electorate in California shows a split between Hilton, who has the support of 38%, and Bianco, at 37%. Interestingly, Hilton also appeals to independent voters, capturing 22% of that demographic.

Among Democratic voters, there is still no clear front-runner. Eric Swalwell leads with 23%, followed by Porter at 14%, Steyer at 12%, and a significant 22% remaining undecided.

Approval Ratings

In addition to the gubernatorial race, the poll examined approval ratings for current officeholders. Governor Gavin Newsom has an approval rating of 44%, a slight decline reflecting a three-point drop since December. Conversely, his disapproval rating has climbed to 45%.

When it comes to President Trump, he faces significant challenges in California with a 62% disapproval rating. Approval ratings for California Senators are also varied; Senator Alex Padilla holds a 42% approval, and Adam Schiff sits lower at 35%.

Cost of Living Concerns

A significant 53% of voters are contemplating leaving California due to the high cost of living. When asked about their primary household financial strain, 28% identified housing as the biggest issue, followed by utilities at 21% and groceries at 17%.

Community Insights on Data Centers

The topic of building data centers in local communities has sparked debate. A plurality of 47% of voters opposes such developments, with opposition increasing among residents with higher education levels: 62% of postgraduate degree holders oppose data centers compared to 29% of those with only a high school diploma.

Key Issues for Voters

The economy is the foremost concern for 37% of respondents, indicating a three-point increase since the last survey. Other pressing issues include housing affordability at 19%, threats to democracy at 16%, and immigration at 8%.

Perspectives on Immigration Policies

The survey also gauged preferences regarding immigration policies, revealing that 41% of voters favor Biden’s approach, while 38% support Trump’s, with 21% rejecting both.

Interest in Upcoming Olympics

As California prepares to host the 2028 Summer Olympics, interest levels are notable: 34% of voters express strong interest, while 19% show considerable interest in the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan.

Methodological Notes

Conducted from February 13-14, 2026, this survey included responses from 1,000 likely voters in California and possesses a margin of error of ±3%. The data was weighted to reflect gender, age, and education demographics.

For additional details regarding this poll, including the exact wording of questions and full demographic breakdowns, visit Emerson College Polling.

In summary, as California heads towards key elections, understanding voter preferences and concerns will be critical. This poll sheds light on candidate standings, public opinions on pressing issues, and the overall political climate in the state.